International Trade — Food Supply

Why There Is A Growing Global Food Shortage & What It Will Look Like

Why there is likely to be a famine in 2023

Martin Knapp
7 min readMar 20, 2023


image credit: shutterstock

In order to live life well, you need to be able to compare how big things are to other things, how long things last, and how bad or good things can get. The only way to know about the things to come, is to better understand the things that have already occurred.

What I love most about Geopolitics is it involves the fundamental issues that every culture is interested in. Self-interest, security, economic structure, and of course resources. If you study it enough, it takes you out of your local view and lets you see the ebbs and flows of activities across the globe, rather than just the five feet in front of you.

A good example is Brexit in the UK. People on both sides of the issue are sure they are correct, however time is proving that Brexit most likely occurred socially because there is a global shift in attitude toward self-interest, and came into effect during a time of shifting global trade. It’s turning out to be some of the worst timing in history, but it involves only a fraction of what the domestic British debates are claiming.

What’s about to happen to Britain with regard to agriculture, food, and food prices, is going to feel like a black swan event to them. Yet if we look globally, we can see food shortages are about to happen for wide swaths of the global population, and food prices are going to remain high for most people.

Here’s why.

The Two Changes: Supply Chain and Climate

These two factors act within two different timeframes.

Climate change… I’m not going to debate as to whether it’s happening or not, if you want to read up on it, you can read the most recent UN Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which came out this week. But if you really are in doubt

reach out to anyone in California, Eastern Texas, Arkansas, Australia, or any rice farmers in Thailand and ask them if they’ve experienced any significant…



Martin Knapp

I write about economics, geopolitics, and conflict. Short posts on X @GeoPoliticaMK