War & Diplomacy — UKRAINE

Why Ukraine Will Likely Fall Despite Russian Capabilities

The current state of the invasion gamed out.

created by Hindisip

I was asked by a few readers to game out the likely outcomes of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This article is meant to provide an accurate portrayal based on the information available at the time of this writing. As in all wars, things can change very quickly. This article is not meant to be a glowing pollyanna view of a bright future or a Cassandra-style piece of doom and gloom.

The first step in gaming outcomes is to put yourself in the shoes of both actors and leave your personal opinions behind. I will focus only on strategy and tactics. For simplicity purposes, we will focus on the two main actors: Ukraine and Russia leaving out third parties. Economics plays a heck of a role in warfare, but I will leave that for another article as it would create too wide of a scope.

The Facts After Day 70

created by the author

Ukraine has handed the Russian military a whoopin’ nobody expected. Before the invasion, the fear was that the Russian military would easily overwhelm…